Is a four-year Bitcoin cycle dead?

As financial institutions, corporations, and governments increasingly began to adopt Bitcoin, some observers of the crypto market started to question whether the four-year cycle model typically applied to Bitcoin is still relevant. Let’s see how this cycle is designed and why many people doubt it is still reliable.

An X account called Bitcoin Archive posted a poll asking if the four-year cycles for Bitcoin are over. In ten hours, over 10,000 accounts cast their votes, with the affirmative answer leading at 52%. It doesn’t necessarily mean that the four-year cycles are not reliable anymore, but rather, it indicates that many people see that the landscape is changing.

Understanding the four-year Bitcoin cycles

When Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin, he encoded the mechanism that cuts the mining reward in two roughly once every four years in the event known as ‘halving.’ It drastically reduces the inflow of new bitcoins to the market. It elevates the costs of unlocking new coins via mining as miners have to spend the same amount of resources to get 50% of what they were getting before halving. Therefore, they have to sell what they mine for higher prices to keep their operation profitable.

Given that the BTC price is mostly driven by demand and supply, halving sets the four-year cycle for the Bitcoin price very naturally. The number of new coins shrinks every four years, and the prices of these coins inevitably go up.

The Bitcoin four-year cycle has several stages. Within 12–18 months after the halving, the BTC price goes up and hits a new all-time high. Some traders even expect the bull market to begin several weeks ahead of the halving. Usually, the bull market is succeeded by the bear market once the BTC price reaches a new record high. The price drops in several stages, substantially decreasing in comparison to a peak price, but mostly, it remains higher than it was before the halving. It makes Bitcoin a persistent long-term grower.

In the past, the even years of every cycle were a halving year and a year of sharp price decline, while the uneven years saw price growth. Each year after the halving year, the price of Bitcoin was characterized by a new record and 1000% or even higher growth. However, 2021 had only a 57% annual growth rate due to a strong bear market by the end of the year.

Although the four-year cycle has been a reliable model in the past, the last few years saw new tendencies. For instance, it was revealed that in 2024, many miners preferred not to sell what they mine and keep it to themselves as they believed that the BTC price would go higher, so they didn’t see any sense in exchanging bitcoins for fiat money amidst the bull run.

Can we still rely on the four-year Bitcoin cycle?

The latest halving took place in 2024. In 2025, the Bitcoin price had already updated its historical maximum, reaching $108,786 on Jan. 20. This may be seen as a confirmation of the four-year logic. However, if the four-year cycle is dead, then we may face something new: the strong bearish reversal or extension of the bull market to the following years.

In recent months, the BTC price has been shaky despite favorable regulations, higher adoption rates, and other bullish news. It makes crypto investors wonder if the bull market actually continues. It may be seen as a sign of the change that made the four-year cycle obsolete.

Co-founder of Syncracy Capital Ryan Watkins is one of the prominent advocates of the idea of the four-year cycle’s death. In January 2025, he stated that it was better to reject terms such as cycle and altcoin season. He believes that the introduction of Bitcoin exchange trading funds will reshape the Bitcoin market by welcoming institutional investors to participate on legal terms.

Watkins believes Bitcoin’s potential is now apparent, but it is not yet reflected at the adoption level. So, now Bitcoin is entering a new era of greater adoption, maturity, and certainty. The governments and institutional investors will foster it, and the price will be less shaky.

It’s worth saying that the four-year cycle model never was the law. Market observers anticipated that the changing market conditions might alter the way Bitcoin prices act. However, as the poll results suggest, nearly half of people still rely on the four-year Bitcoin cycle.

While we can consider the current phase as a bull market, we have to admit that the global economic uncertainty doesn’t let crypto investors enjoy the ride. When the dust of the trade war settles, we will have a better chance to see if the four-year cycle is still working. If the cycle is alive, then 2026 should be the year of a bear market. The state of the crypto market in 2026 may serve as a litmus test.