There’s a 60% chance Bitcoin hits $170,000 this cycle

Real Vision’s chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts is saying that Bitcoin (BTC) could witness an over 155% surge from current levels during this market cycle.

In an appearance on Raoul Pal’s The Journey Man YouTube channel, Coutts says that Bitcoin could explode to six-figure territory as the global money supply increases.

“My base case is if we just look at global M2 (money supply) and back it out to August which was where the Bitcoin cycle peaks, that infers a price of about $100,000 on Bitcoin. I’m placing as a potential outcome but a very low probability outcome. My proportionality forecast is $170,000.”

The crypto analyst further says there are “more optimistic scenarios” where Bitcoin could skyrocket to up to $234,000 and even higher.

“The question is what probability do you assign to each of those potential outcomes to come up with some sort of grounded probability-weighted projection. And so as I mentioned, global M2 regression line of $100,000 is sort of like my base case or worst case. And then all I’ve done is I’ve looked at these other potential outcomes and assigned a probability.

I don’t think Bitcoin is going to go parabolic to $500,000 this cycle. I see $500,000 in the future, not this cycle. So it’s a very low probability. And the outcome is just this probability-weighted market forecast of 189,000 for Bitcoin by August of next year, which will give it a market cap of around $3.75 trillion.”

According to Coutts, Bitcoin has a 15% probability of hitting $100,000 by around mid-August of 2025. Over the same period, Bitcoin has a 60% chance of reaching $170,335, a 20% chance of skyrocketing to $234,000 and a 5% chance of hitting $500,000.